March 2026 – Real Estate 2025: Growth in Italy Amid Global Tensions and Potential Interest Rate Hikes
On the international stage, escalating tensions in the Middle East are generating a significant energy shock, with oil prices rising sharply and impacting the global economic system as a whole. This scenario is increasing uncertainty in financial markets and reshaping expectations regarding monetary policy.
In Europe and Italy, a potential rebound in inflation could lead to further interest rate hikes by the ECB, with direct consequences on the cost of credit, particularly mortgages. Against this backdrop, the Italian real estate market is showing signs of recovery: in 2025, housing transactions return to levels comparable to the pre-2008 crisis period, supported by strong growth in mortgage lending and overall credit volumes. Milan and Rome remain the main drivers of the national residential market.
At the same time, the living investment segment (particularly Built-to-Sell and PBSA) continues to consolidate as one of the most dynamic areas, attracting capital and demonstrating increasing maturity, with Milan leading both in terms of volume and number of transactions.