June 2026 - Global growth slows: real estate between contrasts, Southern Europe living remains resilient as Spain accelerates
The slowdown in the global economy is confirmed in 2026 (+2.8%), driven by geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices, with a recovery expected in 2027. In the United States, growth remains steady at around 2%.
In Italy, despite the resilience shown in the first quarter of 2026, the outlook points to modest expansion (0.5% in 2026), held back by weak consumption and uncertainty, while inflation remains above 3%.
From a demographic perspective, the growing importance of the “Longevity Economy” stands out: over-50s, mostly homeowners, represent a central and increasingly urbanized segment. The Italian real estate market shows positive signs in transactions (+4.4%), supported also by mortgages, although interest rates are rising. New construction remains marginal (6%).
In the rental segment, a structural transformation is emerging: the market is stable in overall volumes, but traditional long-term contracts are declining, while subsidized and short-term agreements are increasing, especially in major cities and in the student housing segment. Milan shows strong growth in subsidized contracts, while Rome displays a more balanced trend between rising rents and volumes.
Overall, the sector appears to be in a transition phase, supported by demand but constrained by high interest rates, limited new supply, and changes in rental models.
At the European level, investments remain cautious, with Italy stable and Spain dynamic. In Spain, property prices continue to rise rapidly. In Q1 2026, real estate values increased strongly (+14.5% year-on-year), driven by major cities where demand pressure is highest.
However, even in Spain there are signs of a slowdown in transactions and mortgages, suggesting a gradual stabilization phase after years of strong expansion. Overall, while Italy is in a phase of moderate growth still dependent on financial conditions, Spain appears more “heated” on the price side, but is also moving toward a market rebalancing.