May 2026 - The Economy and Real Estate amid Global Uncertainty and Signs of Recovery
In recent years, geoeconomic tensions have reached record levels, amplified by international conflicts—particularly in the Middle East—which have driven up energy prices and inflation. This environment has eroded the confidence of households and businesses, contributing to what is described as a state of “permacrisis.” In Europe, the energy shock is compressing real incomes and reducing consumption, while businesses are slowing investment. Consumer confidence has also deteriorated significantly, negatively affecting economic growth.
In Italy, the situation appears fragile: in Q1 2026 GDP grew by only 0.2% on a quarterly basis, indicating near stagnation.
The outlook remains uncertain, with inflation potentially rising up to 4.5% and a possible economic contraction in the coming years if geopolitical conditions worsen.
Globally, however, the real estate sector shows mixed signals. Investment reached $216 billion in Q1 2026, up 18% year-on-year, driven mainly by Asia-Pacific. In contrast, the EMEA region recorded a slight decline.
In Europe, real estate activity remains cautious but is gradually recovering. International capital is returning, supported by more favorable market conditions, and investment growth of 16% is expected in 2026.
However, the recovery will be gradual and uneven.
The Italian market remains stable: in Q1 2026, real estate investments reached approximately €2.8 billion. In particular, the residential “Living” segment shows strong growth, with volumes doubling compared to the previous year, mainly driven by transactions concentrated in Milan.