27/02/2025 – In 2024, new constructions in the 8 metropolitan cities recorded a sharp decline in transactions in 5 cities. Only Bologna, Napoli, and Palermo showed a significant increase that mitigated the final average value (-0.7%). The supply of new homes in major cities continues to fall (-5.5% annually), while sale prices show a new average increase (+4.8%).
Forecasts: slight recovery in transactions (+2%) and rising prices (+3%).
In 2024, the turnover of the new residential market in the eight metropolitan cities exceeded €3.4 billion. Milan, despite the slowdown caused by stalled construction sites, remains the leader, with a turnover representing almost 50% of the total, exceeding €1.7 billion.
Prices increased on average by +4.8% per year, reaching an average value of €5,030 per sqm. Milan is again at the top, with an average price of €7,250 per sqm (+5.7%).
Overall, the supply of new homes continues to decline (-5.5%), with larger drops in Palermo and Milan; in the latter, mainly due to the “urban planning deadlock” and delays related to the “Salva-Milano” decree.
Estimates for 2024 of the residential market in the eight main metropolitan cities indicate a slight overall decrease in transactions (new and used) of -3.0% compared to 2023, with nearly 104,000 transactions. What about new constructions?
According to the analysis by Abitare Co. – a real estate brokerage and services company specializing in new developments – new homes in the eight cities recorded an average annual drop of 0.7%, but at the national level the decline was double-digit (-20.4%) for a total of just over 46,000 new homes sold. Also in 2024, the supply of new homes continued to decline (-5.5%), representing on average only 9% of all properties for sale, while prices continued to grow (+4.8% compared to 2023), reaching an average value of €5,030 per sqm.
In 2024, the turnover of the new residential market in the eight metropolitan cities exceeded €3.6 billion, with Milan leading, accounting for about 50% of the total with over €1.7 billion.
What will happen in the next six months? Transactions could show a slight recovery (+2%), while prices are expected to rise by 3.0%compared to the first six months of the previous year.
New homes: comparison among the eight metropolitan cities
The data shows very different markets among the major cities analyzed: on one hand, the metropolitan areas that recorded the highest transaction growth in 2024 compared to the previous year were Palermo (+39.3%), Bologna (+21%), and Naples (+20.3%); on the other hand, cities such as Genoa (-36.4%), Turin (-18.3%), Milan (-16.7%) and Rome (-14%) experienced significant slowdowns. Florence (-0.8%) also declined but to a much lesser extent.
Prices rising in all metropolitan cities
Even where transactions for new homes declined, average prices continued to increase (+4.8% compared to 2023), reaching a general average value of €5,030 per sqm, but with sharp differences between central areas (€7,560 per sqm), semi-central areas (€4,710 per sqm), and peripheral areas (€3,580 per sqm).
Milan is the most expensive city, with €7,250 per sqm (+5.7%), with values ranging from €5,000 per sqm in peripheral areas to €15,400 per sqm in central areas.
More “moderate” is the average price in Rome, with €6,450 per sqm (+5.2%), reaching €10,600 per sqm in central areas.
In the other cities:
Florence €5,500 per sqm (+2.2%),
Turin €4,730 per sqm (+5.6%),
Genoa €4,700 per sqm (+5.5%),
Bologna €4,500 per sqm (+3.8%),
Naples €4,100 per sqm (+8.3%, the highest increase among the cities).
The most “affordable” is Palermo, with €3,000 per sqm (+2.1%).
Declining supply of new homes
In 2024, the supply of new homes in the eight metropolitan cities recorded an average decrease of -5.5% compared to the previous year, with steeper drops in Genoa (-11.9%), Palermo (-11.3%), and Milan (-10.6%), the latter affected by more than a hundred construction sites halted due to regulatory interpretations that have stalled building activity for about a year.
Overall, new constructions represent only 9% of all properties for sale.
Among the eight cities analyzed, only three exceed 10% market share for new homes: Bologna (22%), followed by Milan (12.9%) and Florence (10%).
In all other cities, the share is lower: Naples 2.5%, Palermo 4%, Genoa 4.3%, Rome and Turin 8%.
Selling times
Time-on-market has increased, exceeding 150 days. On average, selling a property now requires just over 5 months, with significant differences by city: Bologna 4 months, Rome 4.8, Florence and Turin 5, Palermo 5.2, Milan 5.3, Genoa 5.7, and Naples 6.3.
Forecasts
“2025 may bring the market back into positive territory, provided household spending capacity remains stable and mortgage interest rates do not reverse the downward trend that began in the second half of 2024,” states Giuseppe Crupi, CEO of Abitare Co. “However, price pressure remains very high due to a shortage of supply across all major provincial capitals.
Regarding supply, the most affected is the city that has been the most dynamic over the past ten years compared to the others, namely Milan. Until the stalled decree—currently awaiting approval in the Senate—is released, the situation will remain quite complex in the Lombard metropolis.
Based on all this, no major trend changes are expected at least for the first part of 2025. Transactions may show a slight recovery, but no more than a couple of percentage points. Sale prices in major cities are expected to rise by at least 3.0% compared to the first six months of last year.”
For further information:
Abitare Co | Tel. +39 02 48.95.84.16
Via Savona, 52 – 20144 Milan (MI)
info@abitareco.it | www.abitareco.it
