02/12/2024 - Analysis by Abitare Co. on the residential real estate market of new constructions in the Milan hinterland with easy access to the city (37 first-tier municipalities, connected by metro or suburban railway, out of 131 in the entire Province)
The rise in Milan’s prices is pushing families with more limited spending capacity to leave the city. Over the past 5 years, the number of families moving from Milan to the hinterland has increased (+9.7%): a boom in sales (+11.6%) and home prices that are 52% lower for existing properties and almost 60% lower for new ones.
In 2023, more than 15,400 Milan residents moved their residence to the province (+9.7% compared to 2019) (ISTAT).
Transactions: between 2019 and 2023 they decreased in Milan (-5.3% vs 2019) but increased in the analyzed Hinterland (+11.6% in the 37 municipalities) and in the entire Province (+4.4%).
Prices: in new constructions, from 2019 to 2023 Milan recorded a +49% increase in prices (average €7,690 per sqm), while the 37 hinterland towns recorded +27% (average €3,150 per sqm), with peaks in Trezzano sul Naviglio (+50%).
In these municipalities, for families with more limited budgets, the opportunity to find larger and higher‑quality homes increases: with €300,000 in Milan you can buy a new home averaging 40 sqm, while in the examined hinterland the average size reaches 97 sqm, with peaks in Abbiategrasso (133 sqm) and Vimodrone (130 sqm).
In other major metropolitan cities, the first-tier hinterland always wins: Naples +78.3% compared to +7.1% in the city, Bologna +51.2% compared to -9.4% in the city, Rome +45.2% compared to +4.8% in the city, and Turin +35.1% compared to +9% in the city.
Milan, December 2, 2024 – According to the analysis by Abitare Co. – a real estate brokerage and services company specialized in new residences – the rise in home purchase prices, which in Milan have reached on average €4,700 per sqm for existing homes (+42.4% vs 2019) and €7,690 for new constructions (+48.1% vs 2019), has pushed many residents toward the Hinterland municipalities. In 2023, in fact, over 15,400 Milan residents moved their residence to the province, a figure up by +9.7% compared to 2019 (source: ISTAT).
Considering the 37 first-tier hinterland municipalities, connected by metro or suburban rail, out of the 131 in the entire Province, average prices are lower than in Milan by 52% for existing homes (€2,250/sqm) and 59% for new ones (€3,150/sqm), allowing families to purchase larger, newer, or recently built homes with high energy efficiency.
With a €300,000 budget, in Milan you can buy a new apartment averaging 40 sqm (from 26 sqm in the center to 64 sqm in the suburbs), while in the hinterland the average size increases significantly (97 sqm, ranging from 81 sqm to 113 sqm).
However, there are significant differences among the 37 towns. Abbiategrasso is the municipality offering the largest homes with €300,000 (average 133 sqm), followed by Senago (107 sqm), Peschiera Borromeo (105 sqm), and Rho (105 sqm). With the same budget—but due to higher prices—Assago offers only 73 sqm, Sesto San Giovanni 82 sqm, and Basiglio about 80 sqm.
Overall, from 2019 to 2023 the 37 analyzed municipalities recorded an average +27% increase in new‑construction prices, with maximum peaks in Trezzano sul Naviglio (+50%), slightly above Milan (+48%).
Transactions: in the five‑year comparison (2023 vs 2019), they decreased in Milan (-5.3%) while increased in the hinterland (+11.6% across the 37 towns).
The better opportunities in the hinterland in terms of prices and construction quality have also impacted sales. While in Milan transactions fell by -5.3% from 2019 to 2023, the 37 selected municipalities recorded a strong +11.6% growth, even better than the entire province (+4.4%).
Among them, the municipalities growing the most over the five years are Opera (+70.8%), Cusano Milanino (+63.3%) and Vimodrone(+61.7%), while only seven show negative values, with the most significant drop in Pero (-26.8%) due to its proximity to Cascina Merlata.
However, increased interest in the province is not just a Milan phenomenon—in fact, it is even more pronounced in other metropolitan cities: considering only first-tier or well‑connected municipalities, the highest increase in home sales over the past five years was recorded in the Naples hinterland (+78.3% from 2019 to 2023 vs +7.1% in the city). This is followed by Bologna (+51.2% vs -9.4% in the city), Rome (+45.2% vs +4.8% in the city) and Turin (+35.1% vs +9% in the city).
Even in these cities, despite generally lower prices than Milan by 30–35% for new homes, provincial markets are attracting many families with mid‑to‑low investment budgets.
"Several factors lead the average family to buy a home in the hinterland," says Giuseppe Crupi, CEO of Abitare Co. “including the reduced purchasing power, which makes it difficult to sustain rising costs in the city; the preference for well‑connected municipalities, such as those with metro or suburban rail; and the shortage of supply in Milan, where prices continue to rise despite strong demand.”
Specifically:
– Purchasing power has decreased in the past two years: as income stagnates, household costs rise, reducing the ability to save.
– Given their budget, families prefer hinterland municipalities—especially those with good transport connections—rather than some peripheral areas of Milan with sales prices nearly €1,000 per sqm higher.
– New‑construction supply in Milan is shrinking due to a real “urban planning standstill” that has stalled private developers and the municipal administration. Sales prices, even with strong demand and very low supply, do not stabilise but tend to rise. Milan also lacks new, high‑efficiency homes for buyers with mid‑range budgets, such as young people looking to buy their first home and who are particularly sensitive to environmental issues. As a result, many prefer to buy outside the city, where they can find new, good‑quality homes.
For further information:
Abitare Co | Tel. +39 02 48.95.84.16
Via Savona, 52 – 20144 Milano (MI)
info@abitareco.it | www.abitareco.it
