29/02/2024 - In 2023, sales of both new and existing homes fell across all eight major metropolitan cities (-14.2% on average), but the new‑build segment performed better than the existing‑home market. Total turnover exceeded €43 billion (+0.8%), with Rome leading.
Despite the decline in new‑home transactions, prices in the eight cities increased by +3.9% year‑on‑year, reaching an average value of €4,919 per sqm. Milan remains at the top, with an average price of €7,100 per sqm (+7.7%).
Overall, there is a confirmed decrease in the supply of new homes (-4.3%), which is reflected in transaction levels (-4.6%).
In the second half of 2024, a new positive cycle could consolidate, especially in terms of investments and transactions.
In 2023, the residential real estate market in the eight major metropolitan cities recorded a drop of -14.2% in total transactions (new and existing) compared to the previous year (an estimated 105,000 transactions); this must be viewed considering that 2022 was a record year for sales across the country. According to the analysis by Abitare Co.—a real‑estate brokerage and services company specializing in new developments—when compared with the pre‑Covid period (2019), the decline is much smaller (-5.7%). Furthermore, starting from the end of Q3 2023, a recovery in the sales trend was observed compared to the first half of the year. Considering total turnover, in 2023 it exceeded €43 billion (+0.8% vs. 2022), with Rome in first place (€15.8 billion).
New residential constructions in the eight metropolitan cities—estimated at around 12,000 transactions in 2023 (the national figure is estimated at around 60,000)—held up better than existing homes, showing a smaller decline compared to 2022 (-4.6%) and remaining in line with pre‑Covid figures.
“The share of new‑home supply relative to all homes on the market remains very low,” says Giuseppe Crupi, CEO of Abitare Co. “On average, in the eight metropolitan cities, new homes represent only 8.2%, and for this reason, despite a decrease in sales volumes, prices continue to rise.” Inflation (+5.9% annual average) also contributed to rising land, material, and construction costs. At the end of 2023, new‑home prices in the eight cities recorded an average increase of +3.9% compared to 2022, bringing the average price to €4,919 per sqm.
New homes: comparison among the eight metropolitan cities.
Regarding new‑home transactions in 2023 across the eight metropolitan cities (-4.5% vs. 2022), the largest declines were recorded in Genoa and Rome (both -6.2%). They were followed by Bologna (-5.8%), Torino (-4.9%), Milan (-4.5%), Naples (-3.9%), and Palermo (-3.3%). Florence also closed the year in negative territory, but with a much smaller decline (-1.8%).
But while transactions fell, what happened to prices?
On the contrary, average prices increased in all the major cities analyzed (+3.9% compared to 2022), reaching an overall average value of €4,919 per sqm, with clear differences between central areas (€7,150 per sqm), semi‑central areas (€4,625 per sqm), and peripheral areas (€3,144 per sqm).
Milan and Florence, with +7.7% and +5.9% respectively, are the most dynamic cities, while prices in Bologna grew only by 0.6%.
The Lombard capital reached €7,100 per sqm, a figure influenced by high land costs and rising values in both semi‑central and peripheral areas, where maximum average values now exceed €5,000 per sqm. Rome cannot keep pace with Milan, and its average city‑wide price stops at €6,400 per sqm. The gap between these two cities and the remaining six is substantial. In the other cities, average prices stand at €5,400 per sqm in Florence, €4,500 in Turin, €4,450 in Genoa, €4,400 in Bologna, and €4,100 in Naples. The most “affordable” is Palermo, with €3,000 per sqm.
Sales prices are influenced not only by demand pressure on a market with limited supply, but also by all the costs associated with development operations—from land acquisition to design, municipal fees, and construction costs. Compared to an existing home on the market, the components that determine the final price are many, which is why prices remain on an upward trajectory.
On the supply side of new homes, 2023 saw a contraction of -4.3% compared to 2022 (with Rome at -9.5% and Genoa at -7.7%), and the share of new homes among all homes for sale does not exceed 8.2%. Of the eight cities analyzed, only three report a share above 10%: Rome (10%), Bologna (11.3%), and Turin (13%). In all the other cities, the share is much lower: 3.7% in Genoa, 4.3% in Naples, 4.6% in Palermo, 8.4% in Florence, and 9.9% in Milan.
Selling times have lengthened, mainly due to delays in bringing new developments to market. The average is around 4.7 months—ranging from 4 months in Milan and 4.2 in Palermo and Bologna to 5.7 in Genoa and 6 in Naples.
For information:
MY PR – Press Office Abitare Co.
Roberto Grattagliano – 02 54123452 – 338 9291793 – roberto.grattagliano@mypr.it
For the public:
Abitare Co | Tel. +39‑02 48.95.84.16 – 02 48.95.86.82
Via Savona, 52 – 20144 Milano (MI)
info@abitareco.it | www.abitareco.it
