Italian Economic Scenario
GDP and Inflation: For 2024, GDP growth is forecast at 0.5%, with inflation reduced to 1.4%. The economy is currently in a phase of near stagnation (p. 2).
Confidence: Business confidence declined in November 2024, reaching its lowest level since April 2021, especially in the construction and services sectors (p. 3).
Consumption: There has been a sharp reduction in meat and fish consumption (-16.9%) and an increase in purchases at discount stores (+11.9%). Among the products with the highest price increases over the last ten years are pasta (+84%) and extra virgin olive oil (+81%) (p. 4).
Global Discontent: 49.6% of Italians believe that the future will be affected by climate change, followed by concerns about the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine (p. 5).
Real Estate Market (Q3 2024)
National Transactions: Overall increase of +2.7% compared to the same period in 2023, with a total of 161,205 transactions (pp. 7–8).
New vs Existing Homes: Sales of new homes declined by 2.7%, while sales of existing homes increased by 3.1% (p. 8).
Major Cities:
Turin recorded the highest growth (+9.6%) (p. 9).
Milan (-4.8%) and Naples (-3.6%) showed negative trends (p. 9).
In Rome, 75% of purchases concern first homes (p. 9).
Mortgages: The average interest rate fell to 3.53% in Q3 2024, while the share of purchases financed by mortgages rose to 44.1% (pp. 8, 13).
Forecasts and Purchase Intentions
Nomisma: Forecasts a stable close for 2024 (around 707,000 transactions) and a strong rebound in 2025 (+10%) (p. 12).
Intentions: According to ISTAT, the share of people who are “definitely” planning to buy a home within the next 12 months doubled in the latter part of the year, rising from 0.5% to 1%.