The Italian economy closed 2024 with minimal growth, confirming a phase of stagnation already observed throughout the year. As outlined in Marketbeats #15 , GDP remained broadly flat in the final quarter, aligning with the broader Eurozone trend. Despite this, the macroeconomic environment appears to be stabilizing, creating the conditions for a gradual recovery in key sectors, including real estate.
Household sentiment remains cautious but not deteriorating. Data from the Findomestic Observatory (pages 3–5) show that while a significant share of Italian families still perceive their financial situation as challenging, expectations for 2025 are broadly stable, with a growing proportion anticipating either improvement or continuity. Savings behavior also reflects this cautious optimism: although many households report difficulty setting aside income, a relevant share continues to accumulate reserves, supporting future spending capacity.
Within this context, the housing market is beginning to show more tangible signs of recovery. Residential prices continue to rise across Europe, and Italy is no exception. As reported on page 6, house prices increased both on a quarterly and annual basis in 2024, with new-build properties leading the growth. This dynamic reflects both construction cost pressures and sustained demand for higher-quality, energy-efficient housing.
Transaction activity provides further evidence of a turning point. In the fourth quarter of 2024, residential transactions in Italy grew by approximately 7.6%, contributing to a total of over 217,000 transactions in the period (page 7). This trend confirms a progressive strengthening of the market after the slowdown observed in previous years.
A key driver of this recovery is the renewed performance of new housing. As highlighted on page 8, new-build transactions recorded a significant increase, supported in part by fiscal incentives such as the “Sismabonus,” which encouraged purchases directly from developers. This resulted in a notable expansion in the share of new housing within total transactions, signaling renewed interest in modern residential products.
Major urban markets continue to act as growth engines. Cities such as Milan, Rome, and Bologna show positive dynamics, with transaction volumes increasing and demand remaining structurally strong (page 9). Milan, in particular, confirms its leading role, combining high liquidity with a strong appetite for new developments, even though annual trends still reflect some volatility (page 10).
Overall, the Italian residential market recorded approximately 720,000 transactions in 2024, marking a slight increase compared to 2023 (page 10). While still below the peak levels of 2022, this stabilization represents a significant shift after a period of contraction.
In conclusion, the Italian real estate market is entering a new phase characterized by cautious recovery. The combination of stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, improving household expectations, and renewed transaction activity is gradually restoring confidence. Although challenges related to affordability and access to credit persist, the underlying demand for housing—particularly for new, high-quality properties—remains solid. The coming months will be crucial in consolidating this recovery and defining the trajectory of the market in 2025.